Friday, February 3, 2012

The Dwight Howard Saga: It Has to End Soon (& Where Will He Go...)

To say the Orlando Magic have been in a free fall lately after a 11-4 start would be putting it lightly.

Until last night's win against the Washington Wizards the Magic were riding a stretch were they lost five out of their last six games including two embarrassing displays against the Boston Celtics. One of those games had the Celtics erase a 27 point deficit to win 91-83.

This stretch may push Magic General Manager Otis Smith to do what he as refused to since the start of the season. That is to trade franchise center Dwight Howard.

Howard has already let it be known that he no longer wants to wear a Magic jersey and would like to move on. Smith, along with the entire Orlando metropolitan area were, and may still be, hoping that Howard's good nature and loyalty may ultimately win out and that he would sign a contract extension. That doesn't look like it's going to be happening. Smith may have to pull off a trade soon, probably after the All-Star Game. With that in mind the list of teams that Howard would like to go to in a trade hasn't changed much.

That list includes: The New Jersey Nets, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks, and according to various reports the Celtics and the Los Angeles Clippers.

Here is a team-by-team breakdown of how their chances to acquire Howard stack up.

Los Angeles Lakers:

The Lakers still remain the best team to do a straight trade with the Magic. One of the goals Otis Smith has in mind in trading Howard is to also trade away the contract of forward Hedo Turkoglu. That can be done in this trade sending Howard & Turkoglu to LA for center Andrew Bynum and forward Pau Gasol. Gasol has already been used as trade bait in the aborted deal for Chris Paul, so moving him wouldn't be a surprise.
Bynum on the other hand has shown that he is capable of the potential the Lakers saw when they drafted him. That may make this deal more enticing for the Magic.

New Jersey Nets:

The Nets have been known to be Howard's preferred destination, yet they are the team that has the hardest time in pulling off the trade. The only major piece that the Nets have that the Magic would be center Brook Lopez. Then there is the fact that the Nets can't take on the contracts of both Howard and Turkoglu in a straight trade. This means that a third and possibly a fourth team has to be added to the mix.

There are possibilities like this trade sending Howard to New Jersey and Turkoglu to the New Orleans Hornets and the Magic acquiring Lopez, Nets center Mehmet Okur and Hornets center Chris Kaman. Now this trade only works money-wise for the Magic as both Okur and Kaman are on their last year of their respective deals. However, it's highly doubtful that the Hornets, who are still owned by the NBA, would like the financial burden of taking on Turkoglu's contract while trying to entice a new owner to buy the team.

Another factor in play is that there is recent speculation that Howard would like to play alongside Milwaukee Bucks guard Stephen Jackson. Unfortunately for the Nets they simply don't have enough tradeable pieces to make room for Jackson's contract.

Dallas Mavericks

The path to get Howard for the Mavericks is the most interesting one. The team looks a lot different that the one that upset the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals last season. This wasn't by accident.

While letting key pieces like center Tyson Chandler, guard J.J. Barea, and guard DeShawn Stevenson go may have made the Maverick's chances of repeating as champions slim it has been done so by design. Mavericks owner Mark Cuban saw what the Heat did in the summer of 2010 to sign guard Dwyane Wade, forward LeBron James, and forward Chris Bosh. Now he is planning a similar act by having cleared salary cap space after this season to not only sign Howard, but also Nets guard Deron Williams as free agents.

That plan hinges on the assumption that Howard won't be traded by the Magic and the Nets not trading Williams. That's not likely to happen as the Nets have already indicated that if they can't get Howard, they will trade Williams.

Now even though the Celtics and Clippers are said to have intrigued Howard, those teams may have different reasons for not being able to get him.

The Celtics, even after president Danny Ainge has openly said he would be open to blowing up their Big 3 of forward Paul Pierce, forward Kevin Garnett, and guard Ray Allen, seem to gearing up for a last playoff run with their current roster.

The Clippers are looking like a legitimate playoff contender with their current lineup featuring guard Chris Paul and forward Blake Griffin. While Howard is enticing to get, their own center DeAndre Jordan isn't a bad option, particularly on defense.

Any way you slice it though, the Magic seem to be destined to trade Howard rather than risk him walking away with nothing to show for it. Otis Smith may not like it, but it may be his only choice.

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